April 1, 1990 Published in 1990, the IPCC’s First Assessment Report stated that it was certain that “human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.”According to the report, greenhouse gas increases had caused temperature to increase by 0.3° to 0.6° Celsius (0.5 – 1.1° Fahrenheit) over the past century and would cause global average temperature to warm about 1°C (1.8°F) by 2025 and 3°C (5.4°F) by 2100. Projections for regional temperature and precipitation changes were highly uncertain.

1992: U.S. scientists Stephen V. Smith and R.W. Buddemeier pointed out that more carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the ocean could be a problem for coral reefs. Later experiments confirmed their hypothesis that CO₂ makes seawater slightly acidic, which makes it difficult for corals and other animals to build reefs. Today at NCAR, scientist Joanie Kleypas (https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/kleypas/index.html) builds on their work, researching the impacts of acidic oceans on marine life.

                  

                                                                                                                                                        Image: Florida Department of Environmental Protection

From beautiful, extensive coral reefs and other marine life to mysterious shipwrecks, take a moment to explore and learn about the many resources that Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary protects. Source: https://floridakeys.noaa.gov/explore.html

At the second World Climate Conference, held from October 29 to November 7, 1990 in its Ministerial Declaration, the Conference stated that climate change was a global problem of unique character for which a global response was required. It called for negotiations to begin on a framework convention without further delay. As the urgency for a stronger international action on the environment, including climate change, gained momentum, the General Assembly decided to convene in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The Earth Summit, as it is also known, set a new framework for seeking international agreements to protect the integrity of the global environment in its Rio Declaration and Agenda 21, which reflected a global consensus on development and environmental cooperation. Chapter 9 of Agenda 21 dealt with the protection of the atmosphere, establishing the link between science, sustainable development, energy development and consumption, transportation, industrial development, stratospheric ozone depletion and transboundary atmospheric pollution. The most significant event during the Conference was the opening for signature of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); by the end of 1992, 158 States had signed it. As the most important international action thus far on climate change, the Convention was to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of “greenhouse gases” at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. It entered into force in 1994, and in March 1995, the first Conference of the Parties to the Convention adopted the Berlin Mandate, launching talks on a protocol or other legal instrument containing stronger commitments for developed countries and those in transition.

The cornerstone of the climate change action was, therefore, the adoption in Japan in December 1997 of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, the most influential climate change action so far taken. It aimed to reduce the industrialized countries’ overall emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by at least 5 per cent below the 1990 levels in the commitment period of 2008 to 2012. The Protocol, which opened for signature in March 1998, came into force on 16 February 2005, seven years after it was negotiated by over 160 nations.

Cover of the IPCC 2nd Assessment Report

2003: Researchers determined that climate change played a large role in the 2003 heatwave in Europe, which resulted in more than 30,000 deaths.

2007: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report noted that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions had increased 70% between 1970 and 2004 and the effects of climate change were becoming apparent. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,” wrote the authors of the 2007 report, “as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”“Anthropogenic [human-caused] warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible,” they warned. “More extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to climate change.”

Cover of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report

2012: The Rising Voices program has brought indigenous knowledge and western science together to improve understanding of climate change and other types of science and to develop strategies for resilient and sustainable communities.“We need to appreciate the experience and knowledge that has been transferred from generation to generation to generation in Native American communities.” – Bob GoughLearn more: Rising Voices at NCAR 

2014: Emissions are the highest in modern times. The IPCC 5th Assessment Report noted that our influence on climate is clear and “recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history.” The report’s findings led to the Paris Climate Accord, in which nearly all of the world’s countries (174 countries in total) committed to actions limiting warming to below 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) in an effort to avoid the most catastrophic impacts. (The United States announced in 2017 that it would back out of the agreement.)

2016 the point of no return? Carbon dioxide stays above 400ppm year round. September is typically when carbon dioxide is at a minimum in its annual cycle. September 2016 was the first time that minimum level was over 400 parts per million. Before large-scale burning of fossil fuels, CO₂ levels were about 280 ppm.

Source: Climate Central https://www.climatecentral.org/news/world-passes-400-ppm-threshold-permanently-20738

2019: Biodiversity is Declining With Earth system models, scientists are now able to study how species and ecosystems around the world are likely to be affected by climate change and other human impacts. According to a 2019 United Nations report, climate change and other human impacts such as pollution and land use are threatening species worldwide. “Around 1 million species already face extinction, many within decades, unless action is taken,” according to the report.

2021: 2016 and 2020 tied as the warmest years on record, according to 2021 reports. Scientists studying long-term temperature records found that the 10 warmest years through 2020 all occurred since 2000. From NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Director Gavin Schmidt, “…As the human impact on the climate increases, we have to expect that records will continue to be broken.“

NASA Finds 2020 Tied for Hottest Year on Record

Globally, 2020 was the hottest year on record, effectively tying 2016, the previous record. Overall, Earth’s average temperature has risen more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1880s. Temperatures are increasing due to human activities, specifically emissions of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane. (Credits: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio/Lori Perkins/Kathryn Mersmann)

2021 Tied for 6th Warmest Year in Continued Trend. NASA analysis shows, 2012 was tied for the sixth warmest year on NASA’s record, stretching more than a century. Because the record is global, not every place on Earth experienced the sixth warmest year on record. Some places had record-high temperatures, and we saw record droughts, floods and fires around the globe.

Collectively, the past eight years are the warmest years since modern recordkeeping began in 1880. This annual temperature data makes up the global temperature record— which tells scientists the planet is warming.

According to NASA’s temperature record, Earth in 2021 was about 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century average, the start of the industrial revolution.(Credit: NASA/GSFC/SVS/Kathryn Mersmann: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20220113/

2022: Climate impacts are past the natural climate variability. According to the The Sixth Assessment Report from the IPCC highlights the impacts of human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events. The changes have caused widespread adverse impacts and damages to nature and people, beyond what would be expected from natural climate variability (Source: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/resources/spm-headline-statements/

Consequences of Climate Change

We need to understand planet Earth so we can benefit humankind.

Carbon Dioxide = 422 ppm and rising

Methane = 1923.6 ppb and rising

Global Temperature = 1.1⁰ C ( 2⁰ F ) Since preindustrial and increasing

Artic Sea Ice Minimum Extent = 12.6 % per decade and declining

Ocean Warming = 345 zettajoules since 1955 (The zettajoule is equal to one sextillion (10²¹) joules, or units of heat energy. The amount of heat energy the ocean has absorbed over the past 6-plus decades is more than eight times the amount of energy humans used over that time for cooking, electricity, industry, heating, etc.).

Ice Sheets = 424 billion tons per year and declining

Sea Level = 4 inches since January 1993 and increasing

(Source: NASA Global Climate Change Vital Signs of the Planet. https://climate.nasa.gov/)

“Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact.”

Communities: 

The impacts of climate change are already being felt in communities across the country. More frequent and intense extreme weather and climate-related events, as well as changes in average climate conditions, are expected to continue to damage infrastructure, ecosystems, and social systems that provide essential benefits to communities. Future climate change is expected to further disrupt many areas of life, exacerbating existing challenges to prosperity posed by aging and deteriorating infrastructure, stressed ecosystems, and economic inequality. Impacts within and across regions will not be distributed equally. People who are already vulnerable, including lower-income and other marginalized communities, have lower capacity to prepare for and cope with extreme weather and climate-related events and are expected to experience greater impacts. Prioritizing adaptation actions for the most vulnerable populations would contribute to a more equitable future within and across communities. Global action to significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions can substantially reduce climate-related risks and increase opportunities for these populations in the longer term

Climate change creates new risks and exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in communities across the United States, presenting growing challenges to human health and safety, quality of life, and the rate of economic growth.

Economy: 

Without substantial and sustained global mitigation and regional adaptation efforts, climate change is expected to cause growing losses to American infrastructure and property and impede the rate of economic growth over this century.

In the absence of significant global mitigation action and regional adaptation efforts, rising temperatures, sea level rise, and changes in extreme events are expected to increasingly disrupt and damage critical infrastructure and property, labor productivity, and the vitality of our communities. Regional economies and industries that depend on natural resources and favorable climate conditions, such as agriculture, tourism, and fisheries, are vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures are projected to reduce the efficiency of power generation while increasing energy demands, resulting in higher electricity costs. The impacts of climate change beyond our borders are expected to increasingly affect our trade and economy, including import and export prices and U.S. businesses with overseas operations and supply chains. Some aspects of our economy may see slight near-term improvements in a modestly warmer world. However, the continued warming that is projected to occur without substantial and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions is expected to cause substantial net damage to the U.S. economy throughout this century, especially in the absence of increased adaptation efforts. With continued growth in emissions at historic rates, annual losses in some economic sectors are projected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century—more than the current gross domestic product (GDP) of many U.S. states.

Interconnected Impacts:

Climate change affects the natural, built, and social systems we rely on individually and through their connections to one another. These interconnected systems are increasingly vulnerable to cascading impacts that are often difficult to predict, threatening essential services within and beyond the Nation’s borders.

Climate change presents added risks to interconnected systems that are already exposed to a range of stressors such as aging and deteriorating infrastructure, land-use changes, and population growth. Extreme weather and climate-related impacts on one system can result in increased risks or failures in other critical systems, including water resources, food production and distribution, energy and transportation, public health, international trade, and national security. The full extent of climate change risks to interconnected systems, many of which span regional and national boundaries, is often greater than the sum of risks to individual sectors. Failure to anticipate interconnected impacts can lead to missed opportunities for effectively managing the risks of climate change and can also lead to management responses that increase risks to other sectors and regions. Joint planning with stakeholders across sectors, regions, and jurisdictions can help identify critical risks arising from interaction among systems ahead of time.

Water:

The quality and quantity of water available for use by people and ecosystems across the country are being affected by climate change, increasing risks and costs to agriculture, energy production, industry, recreation, and the environment.

Rising air and water temperatures and changes in precipitation are intensifying droughts, increasing heavy downpours, reducing snowpack, and causing declines in surface water quality, with varying impacts across regions. Future warming will add to the stress on water supplies and adversely impact the availability of water in parts of the United States. Changes in the relative amounts and timing of snow and rainfall are leading to mismatches between water availability and needs in some regions, posing threats to, for example, the future reliability of hydropower production in the Southwest and the Northwest. Groundwater depletion is exacerbating drought risk in many parts of the United States, particularly in the Southwest and Southern Great Plains. Dependable and safe water supplies for U.S. Caribbean, Hawai‘i, and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Island communities are threatened by drought, flooding, and saltwater contamination due to sea level rise. Most U.S. power plants rely on a steady supply of water for cooling, and operations are expected to be affected by changes in water availability and temperature increases. Aging and deteriorating water infrastructure, typically designed for past environmental conditions, compounds the climate risk faced by society. Water management strategies that account for changing climate conditions can help reduce present and future risks to water security, but implementation of such practices remains limited.

Health:

Impacts from climate change on extreme weather and climate-related events, air quality, and the transmission of disease through insects and pests, food, and water increasingly threaten the health and well-being of the American people, particularly populations that are already vulnerable.

Changes in temperature and precipitation are increasing air quality and health risks from wildfire and ground-level ozone pollution. Rising air and water temperatures and more intense extreme events are expected to increase exposure to waterborne and foodborne diseases, affecting food and water safety. With continued warming, cold-related deaths are projected to decrease and heat-related deaths are projected to increase; in most regions, increases in heat-related deaths are expected to outpace reductions in cold-related deaths. The frequency and severity of allergic illnesses, including asthma and hay fever, are expected to increase as a result of a changing climate. Climate change is also projected to alter the geographic range and distribution of disease-carrying insects and pests, exposing more people to ticks that carry Lyme disease and mosquitoes that transmit viruses such as Zika, West Nile, and dengue, with varying impacts across regions. Communities in the Southeast, for example, are particularly vulnerable to the combined health impacts from vector-borne disease, heat, and flooding. Extreme weather and climate-related events can have lasting mental health consequences in affected communities, particularly if they result in degradation of livelihoods or community relocation. Populations including older adults, children, low-income communities, and some communities of color are often disproportionately affected by, and less resilient to, the health impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation policies and programs that help individuals, communities, and states prepare for the risks of a changing climate reduce the number of injuries, illnesses, and deaths from climate-related health outcomes.

Indigenous Peoples: 

Climate change increasingly threatens Indigenous communities’ livelihoods, economies, health, and cultural identities by disrupting interconnected social, physical, and ecological systems.

Many Indigenous peoples are reliant on natural resources for their economic, cultural, and physical well-being and are often uniquely affected by climate change. The impacts of climate change on water, land, coastal areas, and other natural resources, as well as infrastructure and related services, are expected to increasingly disrupt Indigenous peoples’ livelihoods and economies, including agriculture and agroforestry, fishing, recreation, and tourism. Adverse impacts on subsistence activities have already been observed. As climate changes continue, adverse impacts on culturally significant species and resources are expected to result in negative physical and mental health effects. Throughout the United States, climate-related impacts are causing some Indigenous peoples to consider or actively pursue community relocation as an adaptation strategy, presenting challenges associated with maintaining cultural and community continuity. While economic, political, and infrastructure limitations may affect these communities’ ability to adapt, tightly knit social and cultural networks present opportunities to build community capacity and increase resilience. Many Indigenous peoples are taking steps to adapt to climate change impacts structured around self-determination and traditional knowledge, and some tribes are pursuing mitigation actions through development of renewable energy on tribal lands.

Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services:

Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being altered by climate change, and these impacts are projected to continue. Without substantial and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, transformative impacts on some ecosystems will occur; some coral reef and sea ice ecosystems are already experiencing such transformational changes.

Many benefits provided by ecosystems and the environment, such as clean air and water, protection from coastal flooding, wood and fiber, crop pollination, hunting and fishing, tourism, cultural identities, and more will continue to be degraded by the impacts of climate change. Increasing wildfire frequency, changes in insect and disease outbreaks, and other stressors are expected to decrease the ability of U.S. forests to support economic activity, recreation, and subsistence activities. Climate change has already had observable impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the benefits they provide to society. These impacts include the migration of native species to new areas and the spread of invasive species. Such changes are projected to continue, and without substantial and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, extinctions and transformative impacts on some ecosystems cannot be avoided in the long term. Valued aspects of regional heritage and quality of life tied to ecosystems, wildlife, and outdoor recreation will change with the climate, and as a result, future generations can expect to experience and interact with the natural environment in ways that are different from today. Adaptation strategies, including prescribed burning to reduce fuel for wildfire, creation of safe havens for important species, and control of invasive species, are being implemented to address emerging impacts of climate change. While some targeted response actions are underway, many impacts, including losses of unique coral reef and sea ice ecosystems, can only be avoided by significantly reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Agriculture:

Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands, and heavy downpours are expected to increasingly disrupt agricultural productivity in the United States. Expected increases in challenges to livestock health, declines in crop yields and quality, and changes in extreme events in the United States and abroad threaten rural livelihoods, sustainable food security, and price stability.

Climate change presents numerous challenges to sustaining and enhancing crop productivity, livestock health, and the economic vitality of rural communities. While some regions (such as the Northern Great Plains) may see conditions conducive to expanded or alternative crop productivity over the next few decades, overall, yields from major U.S. crops are expected to decline as a consequence of increases in temperatures and possibly changes in water availability, soil erosion, and disease and pest outbreaks. Increases in temperatures during the growing season in the Midwest are projected to be the largest contributing factor to declines in the productivity of U.S. agriculture. Projected increases in extreme heat conditions are expected to lead to further heat stress for livestock, which can result in large economic losses for producers. Climate change is also expected to lead to large-scale shifts in the availability and prices of many agricultural products across the world, with corresponding impacts on U.S. agricultural producers and the U.S. economy. These changes threaten future gains in commodity crop production and put rural livelihoods at risk. Numerous adaptation strategies are available to cope with adverse impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production. These include altering what is produced, modifying the inputs used for production, adopting new technologies, and adjusting management strategies. However, these strategies have limits under severe climate change impacts and would require sufficient long- and short-term investment in changing practices.

Infrastructure:

Our Nation’s aging and deteriorating infrastructure is further stressed by increases in heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, heat, wildfires, and other extreme events, as well as changes to average precipitation and temperature. Without adaptation, climate change will continue to degrade infrastructure performance over the rest of the century, with the potential for cascading impacts that threaten our economy, national security, essential services, and health and well-being.

Climate change and extreme weather events are expected to increasingly disrupt our Nation’s energy and transportation systems, threatening more frequent and longer-lasting power outages, fuel shortages, and service disruptions, with cascading impacts on other critical sectors. Infrastructure currently designed for historical climate conditions is more vulnerable to future weather extremes and climate change. The continued increase in the frequency and extent of high-tide flooding due to sea level rise threatens America’s trillion-dollar coastal property market and public infrastructure, with cascading impacts to the larger economy. In Alaska, rising temperatures and erosion are causing damage to buildings and coastal infrastructure that will be costly to repair or replace, particularly in rural areas; these impacts are expected to grow without adaptation. Expected increases in the severity and frequency of heavy precipitation events will affect inland infrastructure in every region, including access to roads, the viability of bridges, and the safety of pipelines. Flooding from heavy rainfall, storm surge, and rising high tides is expected to compound existing issues with aging infrastructure in the Northeast. Increased drought risk will threaten oil and gas drilling and refining, as well as electricity generation from power plants that rely on surface water for cooling. Forward-looking infrastructure design, planning, and operational measures and standards can reduce exposure and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and reduce energy use while providing additional near-term benefits, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Oceans & Coasts:

Coastal communities and the ecosystems that support them are increasingly threatened by the impacts of climate change. Without significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions and regional adaptation measures, many coastal regions will be transformed by the latter part of this century, with impacts affecting other regions and sectors. Even in a future with lower greenhouse gas emissions, many communities are expected to suffer financial impacts as chronic high-tide flooding leads to higher costs and lower property values.

Rising water temperatures, ocean acidification, retreating arctic sea ice, sea level rise, high-tide flooding, coastal erosion, higher storm surge, and heavier precipitation events threaten our oceans and coasts. These effects are projected to continue, putting ocean and marine species at risk, decreasing the productivity of certain fisheries, and threatening communities that rely on marine ecosystems for livelihoods and recreation, with particular impacts on fishing communities in Hawai‘i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, the U.S. Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Lasting damage to coastal property and infrastructure driven by sea level rise and storm surge is expected to lead to financial losses for individuals, businesses, and communities, with the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts facing above-average risks. Impacts on coastal energy and transportation infrastructure driven by sea level rise and storm surge have the potential for cascading costs and disruptions across the country. Even if significant emissions reductions occur, many of the effects from sea level rise over this century—and particularly through mid-century—are already locked in due to historical emissions, and many communities are already dealing with the consequences. Actions to plan for and adapt to more frequent, widespread, and severe coastal flooding, such as shoreline protection and conservation of coastal ecosystems, would decrease direct losses and cascading impacts on other sectors and parts of the country. More than half of the damages to coastal property are estimated to be avoidable through well-timed adaptation measures. Substantial and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions would also significantly reduce projected risks to fisheries and communities that rely on them.

Tourism and Recreation:

Outdoor recreation, tourist economies, and quality of life are reliant on benefits provided by our natural environment that will be degraded by the impacts of climate change in many ways.

Climate change poses risks to seasonal and outdoor economies in communities across the United States, including impacts on economies centered around coral reef-based recreation, winter recreation, and inland water-based recreation. In turn, this affects the well-being of the people who make their living supporting these economies, including rural, coastal, and Indigenous communities. Projected increases in wildfire smoke events are expected to impair outdoor recreational activities and visibility in wilderness areas. Declines in snow and ice cover caused by warmer winter temperatures are expected to negatively impact the winter recreation industry in the Northwest, Northern Great Plains, and the Northeast. Some fish, birds, and mammals are expected to shift where they live as a result of climate change, with implications for hunting, fishing, and other wildlife-related activities. These and other climate-related impacts are expected to result in decreased tourism revenue in some places and, for some communities, loss of identity. While some new opportunities may emerge from these ecosystem changes, cultural identities and economic and recreational opportunities based around historical use of and interaction with species or natural resources in many areas are at risk. Proactive management strategies, such as the use of projected stream temperatures to set priorities for fish conservation, can help reduce disruptions to tourist economies and recreation.

The Northeast: i.e. “New Jersey”  

Annual average temperature have risen more than 3.5^o F in the Garden State since the beginning of the 20th century. If emission keep on the projected path, NJ will see continuing warming trends during this century. Heat waves will be more frequent and more intense. Cold waves are projected to me less intense.

New Jersey’s geographic position in the mid-latitudes often places it near the jet stream, particularly in the late fall, winter, and spring, giving the state its characteristic varied weather. Precipitation is frequent because low-pressure storms associated with the jet stream commonly affect the state. In addition, New Jersey’s location on the eastern coast of North America exposes it to the cold winter and warm summer air masses of the continental interior and the moderate and moist air masses of the western Atlantic Ocean. In winter, the contrast between the frigid air masses of the continental interior and the relatively warm Atlantic provides the energy for occasional intense storms known as nor’easters. As a result of these influences, New Jersey’s climate is characterized by moderately cold and occasionally snowy winters and warm, humid summers. There is a west-to-east contrast of temperatures, with cooler temperatures in the higher elevations of the northwest and warmer temperatures in the east near the coast. Temperature differences from the northwest to southeast are most noticeable in the winter. The northern elevated highlands and valleys experience colder temperatures and more annual average precipitation than the rest of the state. Average minimum temperatures in January range from 15° to 20°F in the northwest to 25° to 30°F along the coast. A similar temperature gradient exists for average maximum temperatures in July—cooler summertime temperatures of 80° to 85°F occur in the northwestern corner and temperatures between 85° and 90°F occur in the rest of the state. The statewide annual average precipitation is 47.6 inches. There is a north-south precipitation gradient as well, with the north-central portion of the state averaging around 50 inches of precipitation and the coastal region averaging 40–45 inches.

New Jersey is located about halfway between the Equator and the North Pole, on the eastern coast of the United States. Its geographic location results in the State being influenced by wet, dry, hot, and cold airstreams, making for daily weather that is highly variable

The map above shows the 7 different climate zones of the United States. The lower 2/3 of New Jersey is in climate zone 4 while the upper regions are in climate zone 5. Source: 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) International Code Council

Temperatures in New Jersey have risen more than 3.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (See figure below). All of the 10 hottest calendar years on record for the state have occurred since 1990, and six have occurred since 2010. The year 2012 was the warmest on record at 3.0°F above average, and 2020 was the second warmest on record at 2.6°F above average. The number of very hot days has been varied (Figure 2a). The number of warm nights in New Jersey has consistently been above the long-term average since the early 2000s, with the highest 5-year average occurring during the 2010–2014 period (Figure 3). The number of very cold nights has been below average since the early 1990s (Figure 2b). Over the past 25 years, there have been many more unusually warm months than unusually cold months in New Jersey. During the 2000–2020 interval, there were no top 5 coldest months, but there were 38 top 5 warmest months.

Figure 1

The monthly normals for the two periods are plotted alongside each other in the figure above

Monthly differences in average temperature normals between the 1981–2010 and 1991–2020 periods. Positive values indicate the more recent 30-year interval is warmer than the prior one. From viewing both perspectives of average temperature, the warm season —May to October — is consistently warming. The cool season, November to April, also warms but shows more month-to-month fluctuations than the warm season. Source Comparing the 1981–2010 and 1991–2020 Normals October 21, 2022 – 4:44pm — Erica Langer https://www.njweather.org/content/comparing-1981%E2%80%932010-and-1991%E2%80%932020-normals

Total annual precipitation for New Jersey has been about 3.7 inches above average over the last 16 years (Figure 2c). The driest conditions were in the 1960s, and near normal to wet conditions have occurred since the 1970s. The wettest consecutive 5 years was the 1971–1975 interval, and the driest was the 1962–1966 interval. The number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events was well above average during 2005–2014 but has been slightly below average since then. During 2010–2014, the state experienced the greatest number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events, about 50% above the long-term average. Summer precipitation has been above the long-term average during this century, with the highest 5-year average occurring during the 2010–2014 period. The state can also experience short-term droughts, such as in 2002, 2010, and 2016–2017 and the summer of 2022.

Figure 2c

Extreme weather events typically experienced in the state include coastal nor’easters, snowstorms, spring and summer thunderstorms, flooding rains, heat and cold waves, tropical storms, and on rare occasions, hurricanes. The state’s coastline is highly vulnerable to damage from coastal storms, which include nor’easters, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Damaging nor’easters are most common between October and April, and those tracking over or near the coast can bring strong winds and heavy precipitation. Annually, the state experiences at least one coastal storm, but some years have seen as many as 5 to 10 storm events. The most extreme and destructive event to affect New Jersey in recent years was Superstorm Sandy in 2012. The powerful storm surge, the most destructive element of Sandy, reached 9–10 feet above normal in some areas along the coast. This was caused by strong winds and an unusual west-northwestward track. New Jersey experienced extensive damage from severe winds and coastal flooding, with an estimated $29.4 billion in repair, response, and restoration costs. February 2010 brought three winter storms to the state, causing Atlantic City to have their snowiest month on record. The blizzard of 2016 brought high winds and heavy snow; Bayville, NJ, had gusts of 72 mph and many beaches experienced moderate to major erosion.

Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under a lower emissions pathway, temperatures are projected to most likely exceed historical record levels by the middle of this century. However, a large range of temperature increases is projected under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records (Figure 1 above). Increases in the number of extremely hot days and decreases in the number of extremely cold days are projected to accompany the overall warming. According to a state-level analysis, by the middle of this century an estimated 70% of summers in this region are anticipated to be hotter than what we now recognize as the warmest summer on record.

Winter and spring precipitation and extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in this century (Figure 5). The projections of increasing precipitation and heavy precipitation events are true for a large area of the Northern Hemisphere in the northern middle latitudes. This may result in increased coastal and inland flooding risks throughout the state.

Figure 5: Projected changes in total spring (March–May) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century compared to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. The whited-out area indicates that the climate models are uncertain about the direction of change. Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. New Jersey is part of a large area of projected increases in spring precipitation in the northeastern and central United States. Source: CISESS and NEMAC. Data: CMIP5.

Since 1900, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches. It is projected to rise another 1–8 feet, with a likely range of 1–4 feet, by 2100 as a result of both past and future emissions from human activities (Figure 6). Even greater rises are projected along the New Jersey coast because of land subsidence. Sea level along the coast of New Jersey has also risen faster than the global average. Observations beginning in 1911 show sea level has risen at an average rate of 1.6 inches per decade, about double the global rate, over the period of record at Atlantic City. Sea level rise has caused an increase in tidal floods associated with nuisance-level impacts. Nuisance floods are events in which water levels exceed the local threshold (set by NOAA’s National Weather Service) for minor impacts. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. As sea level has risen along the New Jersey coastline, the number of tidal flood days (all days exceeding the nuisance-level threshold) has also increased, with the greatest number occurring in 2017 (Figure 7). Coastal flooding caused by sea level rise has important future cross-sector implications for public health, water resources, and coastal ecosystems.

Figure 6: Global mean sea level (GMSL) change from 1800 to 2100. Projections include the six U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force GMSL scenarios (Low, navy blue; Intermediate-Low, royal blue; Intermediate, cyan; Intermediate-High, green; High, orange; and Extreme, red curves) relative to historical geological, tide gauge, and satellite altimeter GMSL reconstructions from 1800–2015 (black and magenta lines) and the very likely ranges in 2100 under both lower and higher emissions futures (teal and dark red boxes). Global sea level rise projections range from 1 to 8 feet by 2100, with a likely range of 1 to 4 feet. Source: adapted from Sweet et al. 2017.

Figure 7: Number of tidal flood days per year at Atlantic City, NJ, for the observed record (1923–2020; orange bars) and projections for 2 NOAA (2017) sea level rise scenarios (2021–2100): Intermediate (dark blue bars) and Intermediate-Low (light blue bars). The NOAA (2017) scenarios are based on local projections of the GMSL scenarios shown in Figure 6. Sea level rise has caused a gradual increase in tidal floods associated with nuisance-level impacts. The greatest number of tidal flood days (all days exceeding the nuisance-level threshold) occurred in 2017 at Atlantic City. Projected increases are large even under a the Intermediate-Low scenario. Under the Intermediate scenario, tidal flooding is projected to occur nearly every day of the year by the end of the century. Additional information on tidal flooding observations and scenarios is available at https://statesummaries.ncics.org/technicaldetails. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NOS.

Climate Change Solutions: 

According to the UN environmental programme ( https://www.unep.org/interactive/six-sector-solution-climate-change/) UNEP’s six sector solution can reduce 29-32 GT CO₂e and will limit temperature rise to 1.5⁰C…here is the roadmap for the key 6 sectors:

Buildings and Cities

• Retrofit public buildings
• Promote the installation of heat pumps, solar cells and heat storage technology
• Incentivize the installation of central cooling and heating and the use of energy efficient lighting and appliances
• Set carbon-neutral building standards for new construction
• Mainstream sustainable building within urban and rural planning
• Incentivize mini-grid solutions, district heating and cooling and waste to energy systems
• Plan cities for strategic density and mixed use of buildings and urban fabric, so that neighborhoods have the services they need at the local scale
• Integrate grey, blue and green infrastructure to manage resources and runoff with minimal impact to the environment
• Invest in physical and market infrastructure to better link rural and urban producers and consumers
• Develop smart systems to integrate buildings, mobility and energy systems, including traffic management, distributed EV-charging and integrated planning processes

Energy:

• Commit to more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions and energy transition strategies
• Set national and sub-national decarbonization and net-zero carbon targets
• Halt policies that support the fossil fuel industry, including excessive subsidies
• Introduce policies that incentivize renewable energy and promote energy efficiency

• Monitor and reduce your company’s energy usage and strive for energy efficiency
• Embrace the opportunities that a transition to renewable energy will create across your supply chains
• Divest holdings in fossil fuel companies
• Set decarbonization and net-zero carbon targets
• Urge your politicians to propose and vote for ambitious policies for renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Push for and support policies for renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Speak up at work to make renewable energy and reduction a collective issue
• Advocate for renewable energy and energy efficiency in your organization
• Talk to friends about the need for renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Attend or arrange events or communities in support for renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Join a local or national organization supporting renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Understand how much energy you use and try to consume less of it
• Use energy that comes from renewable sources if possible
• Divest from investments or pension funds investing in fossil fuels
• If possible, choose utilities and operators committed to decarbonization and energy efficiency

Industry:

• Impose and strengthen energy efficiency standards
• Price carbon — this will facilitate the drawdown of carbon-intensive technologies and promote more sustainable alternatives
• Promote the use of efficient and renewable heating and cooling
• Incentivize and mandate less emissions of greenhouse gases, including cutting methane leaks

• Scale up research and development to create new options for low-carbon industrial processes
• Audit the energy use and resource efficiency of your operations to identify cost-effective high-impact reductions
• Understand your exposure to climate risk and take precautions
• Embrace the opportunities associated with renewable energy and resource efficiency
• Be a leader in sustainable industrial practices

Agriculture, Food & Waste:

• Measure food loss, create waste baselines and implement strategies to reduce food waste
• Set and promote science-based targets to increase the availability and uptake of plant-rich diets, increase sustainable production and minimize food waste
• Inform consumers and producers about food choices and how to reduce food loss waste across the supply chain
• Align national diet recommendations with climate goals
• Promote and support climate-smart and sustainable agriculture practices

• Measure and report company food loss and waste
• Adopt a corporate commitment to halve food loss and waste by 2030
• Work with suppliers and clients to find solutions that reduce food loss and waste across the supply chain, targeting waste hotspots like weak links in the cold chain
• Review packaging, provide clear storage and freezing guidance, eliminate ‘display until’ dates and clarify best before/use-by dates
• Avoid ‘Buy One Get One Free’ food promotions if they are likely to cause customers to buy more than they can eat
• Repurpose extra-ripe foods in-store
• Integrate corporate food loss and waste strategies across your company, including by making it easier for consumers and employees to limit their food waste
• Set up processes for surplus food rescue to transfer healthy, uneaten food to services who can distribute it to those in need

• Urge your politicians to propose ambitious policies for waste reduction and nature-based agriculture
• Push for and support policies for waste reduction and nature-based agriculture
• Speak up at work to make waste reduction a collective issue
• Advocate for waste reduction and nature-based agriculture in your organization
• Talk to friends about the need for waste reduction and nature-based agriculture
• Attend or arrange events or communities for waste reduction and nature-based agriculture
• Shift towards a more plant-rich diet
• Plan meals, write shopping lists, use portion-sizing tools for rice and pasta and cook with leftovers
• Buy only what you can eat or save
• Embrace ‘ugly’ fruit and vegetables
• Store food to maximize freshness, including by freezing food when appropriate if possible
• Share excess with services who can distribute it to the needy
• Compost food scraps
• Ask grocery stores, restaurants and hotels to tackle food loss and champion those who lead the way
• Eat seasonally and locally when possible

Nature based Solutions:

• Halve tropical deforestation by 2025 and stop net deforestation by 2030 globally
• Stop policies and subsidies that incentivize deforestation and peatlands degradation and promote their restoration
• The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration is a rallying call for the protection and revival of ecosystems all around the world, for the benefit of people and nature. It runs through 2030, which is also the deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals and the timeline scientists have identified as the last chance to prevent catastrophic climate change.
• Restore 150 million hectares of forests and other landscapes by 2020 and 350 million hectares by 2030 – the two primary goals of the Bonn Challenge
• Systematically monitor and evaluate the progress of conservation and restoration efforts
• Work with suppliers to find collaborative solutions to minimize ecosystem impacts across the supply chain
• Invest in landscape conservation and restoration as part of net-zero emission efforts; investments must meet high social and environmental standards
• Promote investments in deforestation and peatlands drainage-free supply chains.
• Join a local or national organization supporting forest and peatlands habitat conservation and restoration
• Adopt a diet that reduces forest habitat loss, peatlands drainage and degradation by shopping locally and in season and purchasing products with deforestation-free and peatlands drainage-free ingredients, when possible.
• Whenever possible, neutralize your carbon footprint through investments in natural carbon sinks, such as forests and peatlands.

• Work with suppliers to find collaborative solutions to minimize ecosystem impacts across the supply chain
• Invest in landscape conservation and restoration as part of net-zero emission efforts; investments must meet high social and environmental standards
• Promote investments in deforestation-free supply chains.
• Consider overlaps between making your supply chain climate resilient and restoring forests and ecosystems – and make it happen.

• Urge your politicians to propose ambitious regulation against deforestation and for nature restoration
• Push for and support policies against deforestation and for nature restoration
• Speak up at work against deforestation and for nature restoration
• Advocate against deforestation and for nature restoration in your organization
• Talk to friends about the need for nature restoration
• Attend or arrange events or communities against deforestation and for nature restoration
• Join a local or national organization supporting forest habitat conservation and restoration
• Adopt a diet that reduces forest habitat loss and degradation by shopping locally and in season and purchasing products with deforestation-free ingredients, when possible
• Whenever possible, neutralize your carbon footprint through investments in natural carbon sinks, such as forests

Transportation:

• • Switch fleets to electric vehicles
  • Incentivize a transition to zero-emission transportation, including for cars, taxis, buses, trucks and trains
  • Invest in and remove barriers to non-motorized mobility infrastructure, like protected bicycle lanes or paths for pedestrians

Promote the significant public health benefits of low-carbon policies, including increased public transportation and non-motorized mobility

• Switch fleets to electric vehicles
• Arrange for flexible and staggered working arrangements
• Switch to rail for the transportation of raw materials
• Embrace video conferencing for meetings and conferences
• Urge your politicians to propose support electrification of the transport sector
• Push for and support e-mobility and public transportation
• Speak up at work to make the needs for electric vehicles a collective issue
• Advocate for e-mobility and non-emission transport in your organization
• Talk to friends about the need for e-mobility and non-emission transport
• Attend or arrange events or communities for e-mobility and non-emission transport
• Buy electric vehicles and cars that use cleaner fuels
• Choose rail over air and travel as little as possible
• Reduce your commute by working from home
• Hold meetings over videoconference
• Walk and cycle
• Use public and shared transport
• Support local government initiatives to introduce better mass transit and non-motorized mobility infrastructure
• Join bike-, scooter- or car-sharing service

ACT NOW 

Embrace the possible. That’s the call of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, a blueprint for a better world. We don’t have to wait for the future we want—we can create it right now. Everyone can join the global movement for change.

ActNow is the United Nations campaign to inspire people to act for the Sustainable Development Goals.

https://www.un.org/actnow

Summary:

Our climate is changing because the Earth is warming. People have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the air by 40 percent since the late 1700s. Other heat trapping greenhouse gases are also increasing. These gases have warmed the surface and lower atmosphere of our planet about one degree during the last 50 years. Evaporation increases as the atmosphere warms, which increases humidity, average rainfall, and the frequency of heavy rainstorms in many places—but contributes to drought in others.

Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates. These changes have a broad range of observed effects that are synonymous with the term. Climate change describes a change in the average conditions — such as temperature and rainfall — in a region over a long period of time. Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth’s surface observed since the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900) due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth’s atmosphere.

Our star; The Sun, serves as the primary energy source for Earth’s climate. Some of the incoming sunlight is reflected directly back into space, especially by bright surfaces such as ice and clouds and the rest are absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere. The Earth has a natural greenhouse effect due to trace amounts of water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere. The natural greenhouse effect is caused by the natural amounts of greenhouse gases, and is vital to life. In the absence of the natural greenhouse effect the surface of the Earth would be approximately 33 °C cooler.  The enhanced greenhouse effect refers to the additional radiative forcing resulting from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases induced by human activities i.e. the burning of fossil fuels.  The main greenhouse gases whose concentrations are rising are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydro chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and ozone in the lower atmosphere.

Many other impacts associated with the warming trend have become evident in recent years. Arctic summer sea ice cover has shrunk dramatically. The heat content of the ocean as increased. Global average sea level has risen by approximately 16 cm (6 inches) since 1901, due both to the expansion of warmer ocean water and to the addition of melt waters from glaciers and ice sheets on land. Warming and precipitation changes are altering the geographical ranges of many plant and animal species and the timing of their life cycles. In addition to the effects on climate, some of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is being taken up by the ocean, changing its chemical composition (causing ocean acidification).

Rigorous analysis of all data and lines of evidence shows that most of the observed global warming over the past 50 years or so cannot be explained by natural causes and instead requires a significant role for the influence of human activities. In order to distinguish the human influence on climate, scientists must consider many natural variations that affect temperature, precipitation, and other aspects of climate from local to global scale, on timescales from days to decades and longer.

In 1640 carbon dioxide was discovered by Johann Baptista van Helmolt, Flemish alchemist, determined that air is a mixture of gases.  Around 1760, we have the start of the Industrial Revolution. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the way people live and work has changed dramatically as manufacturing expanded. Before the Industrial Revolution, there was approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the air. Today, that amount is over 400 ppm. In the 1800’s hundreds Eunice Foote, American scientist, discovered that carbon dioxide and water vapor cause air to warm in sunlight. Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius recognized that burning coal could increase carbon dioxide and warm the climate. He estimated how much carbon dioxide the ocean could absorb. Roger Revelle, U.S. oceanographer, and Hans Suess, Austrian-born U.S. chemist, realize that carbon dioxide from industrial sources must be building up in the atmosphere. Measurements since the 1950s indicate that the amount of sea ice in the Arctic has been declining. The Arctic is projected to have no summer ice cover by the middle of this century. In 1958; Charles Keeling started making daily measurements of the amount of carbon dioxide in the air atop Mauna Loa in Hawaii. That first March day, he found 313 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the air.

1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed. The IPCC was formed by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations to review the latest climate science every few years and help governments around the world understand what we know about climate change, its impacts, and efforts to adapt and mitigate. At the second World Climate Conference in 1990 in its Ministerial Declaration, the Conference stated that climate change was a global problem of unique character for which a global response was required.

The General Assembly decided to convene in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The Earth Summit, as it is also known, set a new framework for seeking international agreements to protect the integrity of the global environment in its Rio Declaration and Agenda 21, which reflected a global consensus on development and environmental cooperation. Chapter 9 of Agenda 21 dealt with the protection of the atmosphere, establishing the link between science, sustainable development, energy development and consumption, transportation, industrial development, stratospheric ozone depletion and transboundary atmospheric pollution.

September 2016 was the first time that minimum level was over 400 parts per million. Before large-scale burning of fossil fuels, CO2 levels were about 280 ppm. Globally, 2020 was the hottest year on record, effectively tying 2016, and the previous record. Overall, Earth’s average temperature has risen more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1880s. The past eight years are the warmest years since modern recordkeeping began in 1880. This annual temperature data makes up the global temperature record— which tells scientists the planet is warming.

Climate Change will impact our communities,, economy, the interconnected systems, our water, health, Indigenous people, ecosystem and everything we get from nature, our food supply, infrastructure, our shore lines as well as tourism and recreation.  We have the solutions and we need to apply these solutions so humans can continue to exist on planet Earth.